悲观者指南:中文网络的2017

(泡泡特约)今年的元旦前没有写2016年的中文网络年报,主要因为2015年的年报依旧可适用,进展或者说变化较慢,但趋势是稳定的,就是持续地朝着一个衰落和变质的方向迈进。

除此之外,推测认为,2017年的主要趋势大致如下。

已经有迹象显示,当局的审查开始瞄准微信群聊,最有可能的过滤方法仍是群聊名称和对话中的关键字,其中前者效率更高,因为大多数人对大型群组的交流主题(人员构成)都是通过群聊名称来判断和记忆的。关键字过滤无法避免的问题在于其很容易绕避,即便不使用其他语种或者谐音,仅仅断开一个词条——一个词条发成两条信息,即可避免被捕捉。

另外,预计审查仍会偏向于定位监控,当局对外公开的对数据采集和储存的要求极难实现,即便能实现也相当于自行自找噪音,对其监控的目的来说是强大的干扰。而后台实名制是协助当局瞄准敏感人士、在案人士的最便捷途径,它已经被充分利用了。

红包和打赏功能依旧能帮助大局域网锁定绝大部分中文用户,whatsapp、telegram和signal等加密应用将会迎来更多的中国用户,不过除非高度敏感的热点事件出现,中文注册者恐怕不会以它们为主要交流渠道。

社交媒体整体会逐渐变成纯粹的广告平台、宣传窗口,它的寿命取决于人们对宣传内容的感知和自我宣传的需求。后者明显强劲,而在中国,还要加上人们对宣传性信息的感知迟钝。

中文社交将更多钟情于更小的圈子,非圈子型群组不至于解散,但会逐渐失去交流,仅以广告栏的形式存在,如同朋友圈——发布者所认为的价值远高于接收者所认为的价值。不过它不如朋友圈的一点在于,人际资源竞争方面的落后,至少朋友圈对面子的需求更高。中文网络的社交方式一直是人际携带内容,也是其所谓的热点内容价值严重参差不齐的原因。

圈子间将更加分化,结构洞连接者会更多生成。他们大多属于公开网络上的活跃人士,交际面广、知识涉猎广、信息充足。但整体上,这部分人群仍将是极少数。如果这部分人群中的新精英阶层所占比例过大,整体连接状况或许仍不如预期。

“结构洞(structural hole)”指的是社会网络中的空隙,即社会网络中某个或某些个体和有些个体发生直接联系,但与其他个体不发生直接联系,即无直接关系或关系间断,从网络整体看好像网络结构中出现了一个洞穴。

Coleman的社会资本理论指出,社会资本由构成社会结构的要素组成,主要存在于社会团体和社会关系网中,只有通过成员资格和网络联系才能获得回报,也就是说,社会资本并不为个人占有,个人必须通过关系网络获取它,这就可以解释为什么说“竞争是一个关系问题,而非玩家自身之间的竞争”。

中文网络虽然有高度的小圈子化特征,但肯定不存在完全自闭的小圈子,如果有,它也是无效的,因为成员享有的社会资本过低。拥有强连接关系的个体之间的同质性较高,他们拥有的资源也十分接近,因此个体不容易从强关系中获得自己稀缺的资源。而弱连接关系则恰恰相反,由于彼此之间的异质性较大,双方更可能拥有彼此稀缺的资源,因此个体能从弱关系中获得更多。

不过这其中存在一个问题,弱连接关系中的双方由于某种客观或者主观的原因存在着隔阂(这也正是他们成为弱关系的原因),他们怎样才能更加顺畅地实现交换呢?而这正是结构洞理论所关注的地方,因此Granovertter提出的弱关系力量假设可以看作是结构洞理论的根基。

弱连接关系更多在公开平台产生,比如twitter,但很多中文用户不喜欢转发和直接跟评,而是将内容截图或拷贝到私人微信圈子里面来和熟人分享,以获得更多共鸣,这种奇怪的弱连接,由于其动机特殊--不是参与型的互动--它几乎无法发展为强连接关系。或许可以称之为无效弱连接。

中国社交还有个特点,高阶层人士(包括新精英阶层)与同等阶层发生连接关系的可能性较高、与低阶层发生连接关系的可能性较低,社交媒体也在促使这种状况的发生。比如twitter,除非互粉用户和认证的名人,回复一般不给提示,于是很容易错过交流。而“推荐关注”也是与既存连接关系相关性最高的那部分,对人际范围形成了一种自然的收敛。

另外,同是高阶层和强连接关系,带动可能性和互相协助的机会却有很大差异,这要取决于资源被需求方对需求方在“回报价值”和风险值等方面的评估。

比如,自我审查过度的被需求方,即便其有能力也有意向参与需求方发起的活动,其结果也可能被焦虑所束缚而难以实现。再比如,需求方拥有的资源在被需求方眼中并非需求,也就是回报值问题,被需求方也会对其重点考虑。中国人大多比较短视,他们眼中的利益需要可见,对长远价值的考虑不够充分。

这么讲似乎不是太准确,有一种特例或许能称之为“长远价值考量”,那就是结构洞的次生连接关系在被需求方眼中是否属于渴求性价值。包括接受动员后对自身产生的直接价值评估在内,最终的联合可能性将由上述几个方面的条件综合决定。

整体上看,社交媒体内容目前正处于一轮有希望成为比较彻底的淘汰波动中,美国大选后对假新闻的一系列持续性的检讨和监视已将这轮淘汰的气氛挑高,最终稳定下来的内容和风格将做为社交媒体2.0的基础模式。

不过对于中文网络来说,很可能难以同步,它更多会体现在知识和反智的竞争上。但最终究竟是高质量的思考能赢、还是依旧反智取胜,很难预测,如果只是思考和反智的彻底分化、各自形成自己的关系网,说明这一波淘汰仍是肤浅的。

必需承认,思维方式几乎可以决定一切。近日再次有英文网络用户提及有关互联网优质内容即将进入大范围付费模式的推测,它或将成为此轮淘汰的一个重要部分。不过在中国依旧有可能不同。

大致几个方面原因。首先,中国网络已经有了比较稳定的自愿付费的打赏模式,其结论几乎完全依赖于名人效应和人情面子,也就是说与内容的优劣关系极低。更何况,优劣本身就是主观判断的结果,如果市场主体属于不支持思考和不讲道理,加上审查机制,最终被筛选出来的“优秀”很可能只是些星座运势和当局喜欢的“正能量”纯宣传。

其次,付费墙在中国会变成极少部分人赚取影响力的杠杆(GFW已经被部分跨墙群体做此使用了)这便在很大程度上削减了内容生产者的利益,相当于付费内容的生产者只是在养活一小众搬运工。这种模式描述出来比较滑稽,看起来几乎不太可能实现,但如果你了解中国网红“逻辑思维”的采编模式就很容易感受这种可笑的内容营销伎俩在中国有多么强大的市场了。“逻辑思维”摘取的还都是免费内容呢。

更普遍的问题在于,中国网民绝大部分并不是以学习和深入思考的目的来获取内容的,网络内容对他们来说只是个闲来谈资,本网曾经分析过相关问题,这种获取动机直接影响内容生产的质量和假消息的流传,同时也决定了中国网民对优质内容的判断——它很可能只是不辨真伪的纯粹吸睛度追求和肤浅口水的代名词。

前两天和一位欧洲艺术家聊到中国为什么做不出流行趋势的问题,现在中国人享用的流行是韩国偷一点,欧美偷一点,港台再偷一点,完全没有自己的能拿的出去的东西。这就是思维方式造成的。中国人的思维方式不是独立的,他们不会自己选择,之所以变成不断的抄,是因为被他们抄的东西已经流行起来了,也就是说他们选择的只是别人的选择的结果。

让中国人确认一个流行趋势的前提有两种 1、名人效应,依靠炒作和私人社会关系网;2、国际已经流行的甚至不要的东西,给他们捡,比如做为好莱坞甩货的高视感大电影模式在中国的重量级投资。这个逻辑在对优秀的网络内容的选择上同样成立,对于习惯于从众的群体来说马太效应能得到加倍的体现。

不过有一个特例,那就是类似问答形式的内容购买,是需求方在决定需要什么,内容出售者为其量身定做。如果一个信息对需求方来说有很高的私人价值,比如用于商业竞争,他们很可能愿意花钱购买,且不会直接共享。但这不能算作广义上的内容付费模型,只能算是情报交易。

社交媒体衰落的趋势已经逐渐呈现,其中中文使用者最吃亏,因为他们还没有充分享用过它的最大价值--协作和动员。

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