“互联网趋势报告2018”依旧呈现不良趋势,这里是具体分析

(泡泡特约)Mary Meeker 发表了期待已久的 2018 年互联网趋势报告。

今年,Kleiner Perkins Caufield&Byers 合作伙伴连续发布了 284 张幻灯片,内容涵盖从美国智能手机行为,到科技公司在中国的竞争。以下是一些要点:

1. 2017 年是智能手机的出货量没有增长的第一个年头。随着全球越来越多的人成为智能手机用户,增长越来越难以实现。互联网用户增长也是如此,2017 年上涨 7%,低于去年同期的 12%。目前世界上已经有超过一半的人在线。—— 虽然安全专家一再强调移动设备的安全性相对较低。

2. 人们仍然在增加他们的在线时间。 2017 年,美国成年人每天在数字媒体上花费的时间为 5.9 小时,高于前一年的 5.6 小时。这些时间中的有大约 3.3 个小时是花在移动设备上的,这是数字媒体消费总体增长的原因。—— 虽然心理学家一再强调社交媒体对焦虑症和自恋型人格的促进是显而易见的和值得警惕的

3. 尽管 1,000 美元 iPhone 和三星 Galaxy Note 高调发布,智能手机的全球平均销售价格仍在继续下降。—— 中国的廉价产品正在占据更大的市场,其结果会是什么?(并不是说高价手机就会相对安全)

4. 移动支付变得更容易完成。中国继续领导世界其他地区对移动支付的采用,2017 年拥有超过 5 亿的移动支付用户。——⚠️ 尽管隐私捍卫者强烈建议人们使用现金消费,仍然有很多人贪图在线支付的所谓便利。与中国或者哪个国家引领这种愚蠢的裸奔潮流并无关系。

5. 像亚马逊 Echo 这样的语音控制产品正在大幅崛起。 Echo 在美国的安装量已经从 2017 年第三季度的 2000 万增加到第四季度的 3000 多万。—— ⚠️ 尽管揭秘文件一再警告人们,智能语音产品背后站着老大哥,但还是有如此多的人心甘情愿花钱去购买这种令自己的私人生活陷入被监听之恐怖气氛的设备。

6. 科技公司正面临着“隐私悖论”。他们被困在使用数据“提供更好的消费者体验”和侵犯消费者隐私权之间。——⚠️ 因为他们采取的数据收集并不是真的完全为了“更好的用户体验”,而是以出售这些数据为盈利模式,包括服务于当权者的窥视欲,这就是近十多年来被广为抨击的监视资本主义。数据即权力。任何人都不必也无法期待权力被高度集中后能诞生仁慈和爱,这不符合基本人性逻辑。数字世界发生的事和现实世界没什么区别。

7. 电子商务销售增长继续加快。 2017 年美国增长 16%,高于2016年的 14%。亚马逊在去年的销售额中所占份额为28%。相反,实体零售销售继续下滑。—— ⚠️ 这一趋势相当于强迫推进“无现金社会”,电子商务迅猛发育已经在可观的程度上终结了现金的使用,令整个人类社会回归斯塔西时代。这可不仅仅是实体店利润和商品房租售的问题。

8. 中国正在成为全球最大的互联网公司枢纽。目前,中国拥有全球 20 家最大互联网公司中的 9 家,而美国有11家。五年前,中国有两家,美国有九家。—— ⚠️ 中美在瓜分全球数据,我们在至少三年前就强调了这点。这一趋势在挤压其他国家,影响他们的隐私安全甚至国家安全。(见下面两张图)具体文章在这里:《NSA 的阴云笼罩国际加密 —— 网络安全标准化会议在中国举行令人五味杂陈》:https://steemit.com/encryption/@iyouport/nsa;《结束毫无意义的口水和拉锯战,这里是你应该知道的事——为自由而战(四)》https://pao-pao.net/article/1012

⚠️**至今仍有很多用户将希望寄托在“中美之间没有情报共享”这一逻辑上,认为美国用户选择中国产品,或者中国用户选择美国产品,就能做到安全。这是很傻的。互联网时代是这样的时代,即 一种能力,要么没有任何人能得到它,要么所有人都能得到它不存在将一种能力的拥有者控制在某个范围内的选项。这就是为什么国安局的存在已经成为了严重的麻烦 —— 他们所制造的间谍软件和要求科技公司预留的后门,不论其初衷是什么,其结果都是被恶意行为者所利用,攻击他人,甚至对国安局这个创造者倒打一耙。我们在《为什么要求解散国安局?https://pao-pao.net/article/1041 》这篇文章中有更多具体分析。“中国制造”的道理完全一样。“中美之间没有情报共享”只是意味着互相不知道对方如何在利用这些入侵工具,并不意味着利用不存在。

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