当人们不再信任--埋藏在情绪数据中的媒体和被损伤的社会知觉

(泡泡特约)“你们媒体就是太自以为是了,你觉得真的有人会拿新闻当回事吗,大家不过是看个乐子,只要编的够真、合乎人们的联想习惯,就是真相”;

“这么多媒体,人们为什么要来看你?因为你有与众不同的东西。基本没人会去查证什么,这就是信息时代的市场竞争,你的唯一任务就是要赢”;

“这些不需要辟谣,流传开的结果是有利的,在舆论战中你只需要警惕别站错了队”。

“我已经不知道自己是在干什么了”,一大堆抱怨过后,记者C这样说。上述来自他的所闻。媒体原本的作用是监督权威和反馈底层,现在变成了讨好受众市场,至少后者明显融入了前者。也难怪很多人开始不信任媒体渠道。

本网早前曾发布过多篇关于如何判断消息真伪的文章,使用过“伪真相”的概念,它的微妙在于,有时候能促成现实真相的出现。日前,纽约时报发表了一篇类似的文章,使用的概念是“后真相”,并且眼界放大到一个政治时代问题,这个时代损伤了人们的信任。它是对的,不过它很客气的没有点明,这种现象是媒体变质的表现。

媒体和内容营销最重要的区别就在于它们的义务,后者只需要为吸睛度拼搏,而前者有义务捍卫公众的信任。社交网络时代,很多受众会将身边即时发生的信息拿来分享,这些底层内容生产者越来越成为媒体的重要资源之一,但正常情况下媒体都应该知道去核实,因为非专业人士普遍具有夸大和严重片面的问题,而对结果起关键作用的不只有专业性,还有目的性:是为了销售内容、迎合受众猎奇心理、政治宣传,还是为事实把关。

十几天前,当我看到一则消息说,美国大部分报纸都打破了传统开始为民主党背书时,不知道是该高兴还是遗憾。平心而论,在只能二选一的局面下,真的不希望Trump赢得大选,而媒体们这样做的确违背了不偏倚的基本属性,会让人们给媒体贴上不公正的标签。如果人们不再信任媒体,又将去何处寻找事实?

这个时代太缺乏的是信任,最容易被利用的也是信任。美国心理学家Jerome S. Bruner提出过一个概念:社会知觉,是知觉的一个新层次,即知觉过程受社会因素所制约,存在于人与人之间、人与群体或社会组织之间、人与社会职业之间,还可以扩大到人与环境之间。中国频发的医患纠纷就是人们对医疗行业不再信任的结果,媒体正在走入这个怪圈。

国家级网络攻击最大的危害就是破坏人与互联网环境之间的知觉管理,它既是技术战术,也是心理战术。

虽然民主国家正在向一个电子投票以及通过科技手段投票遍及各处的时代迈进,但传统的威胁依然相伴,并且这种威胁正在逐步向网络空间渗透,电子投票机就是脆弱的目标。干涉选举进程是一种情报和外交政策的典型手段。虽然一些美国媒体在报道中强调,即便黑客攻破投票机,对大选结果的影响也不大,因为美国一些投票机是提供纸质记录的,以备在计票出现问题时用于查证,但仍需使用者小心警惕。

此前,针对民主国家选举的大规模黑客活动已经敲响了警钟,黑客有可能并没有直接左右到选举结果,但有关他们的存在、能力及其具体行为的报道很可能已经损伤了社会知觉,如果越来越多的人不再信任选举制度、甚至不再信任民主制度,以及对候选人产生怀疑,黑客的目的就达到了。网络是他们达成目的的渠道。

美国网络安全公司FireEye的调查记录显示,当时还是在野党的民主进步党在2015年12月就遭受过中国黑客的攻击,试图影响隔年一月的台湾总统大选。今年4月,胜选的民进党又再度受到中国黑客的攻击,而台湾第三大党时代力量,也在同一时间宣称受到中国黑客的攻击。

这就是我们称之为数字新冷战的局面(twitter标签:#DigitalNewColdWar)。

然而与其并行的宣传战之杀伤力一样不弱。10月16日,美国共和党北卡罗来纳州选举办公室被人纵火烧毁,同日阿桑奇的网络被切断,加之上诉中提到的美国报纸集体为希拉里站台,这都给了特朗普倒打一耙的机会,他可以不断的借以强调“选举中有人作弊”。

骗取信任只是政治宣传的一方面,同时存在的另一面是给对手贴上不信任的标签。日前,一个叫Heavy的网站贴出一篇文章,分析阿桑奇和他的维基解密,并努力与俄罗斯形成关联,因为受众普遍存在一种可作为前提的认知,Trump亲俄,那么将可以就此形成一个连带关系:阿桑奇在攻击克林顿——阿桑奇是民主党的敌人——民主党的敌人就是共和党的战友——俄罗斯支持Trump——阿桑奇是在帮俄罗斯做事……文章后面贴出的投票结果显示,有超半数的参与者认为维基解密不可信。

类似的文章并不罕见,在近期舆论战最为激烈的阶段更是频繁出现。

只要人们不再信任维基解密,困扰希拉里的邮件门就能迎刃而解。然而维基解密的过往和今后也很可能就此被抹杀,就如对政府监控的曝光,突尼斯政府的倒台部分原因就是解密文件中对其腐败行为的揭露。虽然它也曾触犯无辜者的隐私,如泄漏同性恋群体的私人信息,舆论对维基的态度一直褒贬不一,但至少它的存在能起到让人们在心理上对当权者保持警惕的作用。

CNN的主持人Chris Cuomo说了句公道话,他在节目中指出,“查看WikiLeaks泄露的有关希拉里的邮件是非法的,但媒体不同,所以美国人民应该通过像CNN这样的媒体了解其邮件内容”。WikiLeaks也的确应该和媒体合作,于是我们再次绕到了原点--媒体能否捍卫公众信任的问题。如果大多数媒体在舆论战中选边站、被怀疑有失公正,阿桑奇自然可以拒绝合作。

已经可见的是,为了支持希拉里,对于维基解密公开的消息,媒体会着眼于其中一部分,而忽略另一部分,报道侧重于“导弹防御系统环绕中国”,而淡化了希拉里夸奖“习近平比胡锦涛更强”的另一面。

在对信任的侵蚀上,极端分子的行为也是相似的逻辑。他们发起恐怖袭击,在各种形式的宣传中使用伊斯兰教的标志性元素,给世界留下伊斯兰教等于恐怖主义的错误印象,人们简单的头脑会把穆斯林群体贴上凶手的标签、出现频发的仇视事件,这些都给了极端分子更充分的理由去发动更多的袭击,并就此招募那些遭受偏见和敌视并义愤填膺的“同道”。

因为人们不再信任,并且更急于辨识危险,标签是最好用的认知方式,就如中文舆论对Charlotte的抗争不屑一顾的那些观点,他们认为“如果历史上的罪案嫌疑人大多是黑人,那么警方对黑人保持警惕就是正当的”。

恐怖分子吸纳难民与人们对叙利亚难民的偏见几乎可以视为循环式的因果关系,而媒体在无意中也起到了固化偏见的作用,就如反复报道中强调了恐袭嫌疑人的身份是叙利亚难民、并引述其家人称“他是经由柏林的一名伊斯兰教士的洗脑而变得极端的”,这些都是标签化的描述,人们会就此怀疑难民群体、甚至德国的伊斯兰教。

对媒体的信任降低的同时,社交网络底层内容生产者的吸引力正在提升。三个月前,在一次调查后本网分析了人们的注意力转入群聊的现象,封闭式聊天组在信息获取方面的被重视程度明显提高,真伪难辨的状况也随之加强了。

近期退伍兵进京维权的消息持续被舆论关注,关于这个热点的底层内容生产者有了绝对的优势,帮了他们大忙的是中国当局一贯恼人信息封锁,信息被阻碍程度越高,杜撰者越兴奋,伪造的消息层出不穷。

一个流传甚广的消息说,此次进京的老兵们每人获得了十几万元补贴的“战果”。虽然人们大多应该知道,中国存量老兵数以千万计,每年还新增数十万,给上访的老兵发钱只会鼓励其他老兵也去上访,这与当局的维稳主旨相悖。但该消息依旧颇为吸睛。

很多实验可证,人们只会接收那些他们喜欢看到的内容,对于偏离个人思维习惯、超越认知深度的内容会自动屏蔽。

最有趣的是,并非无人识别其虚构,很多持政治反对立场的人即便看出也不会指出,并协助其流传,因为它有希望带来挑战的可能性。并且这些意愿是公开的,人们喜欢公开它们,以此彰显自己的立场。但长此以往,或许会有更多的人对群聊渠道的信息失去信任(获取心态发生改变)、猎奇心理水涨船高,将在一定程度上阻碍真实消息信息的传播。

越来越多类似的东西和有目的的政治宣传融合在一起,形成了网络数据的重要部分,这些数据能感知公众情绪的变化,在美国大选中,通过对twitter“情绪分析”的结论比传统渠道的民调更多被信任,它们对政客来说是重要的参数。我们已经生活在数据世界里了。

然而它又有可能给现实政治带来可怕的结果,因为它们是情绪的指示器而不是对现实的说明,那么人们将如何就此达成共识?解决方案肯定是要基于现实的。

谷歌新做了一个“事实检查”功能,声称能够帮助人们辨识假消息。重拾信任,它的出发点很有价值,但结果如何尚有待观察。祝它好运。

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