为什么是俄罗斯封锁 Telegram 引发连日刷屏而不是中国的大面积封锁和监控?

(泡泡特约) “中国太缺乏人才,或者说实际能力与知名度相匹配的人,不论是在媒体方面还是技术方面。 ……在国际上很难听到中国人的声音”,几年前,一位加密技术领域的欧洲朋友这样对我说。

两年前,公民实验室一篇关于中国微信审查的报告,其主要结论是我在五年前揭露并分析过的。当然,我的文章使用的是中文。我当时与合作者讨论这件事时很郁闷地说,“我们根本没能走出来,我们被封闭了,或者就是自闭”。

这几天来,俄罗斯对 telegram 的封锁一直是几大社交媒体平台上的热门消息,国际人权组织、隐私保护组织、技术热心人士、活动家们纷纷发帖和撰文加以谴责,舆论和报道覆盖多个语种。其中基本没有中文。iyouport 的博客在跟踪这一消息,对其他语种的相关报道进行了翻译,但在中国网络上传送时几乎无人响应。

一个有趣的现象在于,这些报道中并没有多少提及中国。众所周知,中国在三年多前就已经封锁了 telegram。似乎当时也没有今天这样的横跨多语种的广泛关注。与中国政府的其他封锁和审查被披露的结果近似。

为什么会这样?

“闹大了”和“没闹大”

俄罗斯对其公民的在线活动进行管制所采取的方法被很多人认为是在效仿中国。虽然克里姆林宫还没有完全学到中国的 GFW,但这并不意味着他们会停止打击互联网的尝试。

半个月前,俄罗斯阻止 telegram 的行动进入了猫鼠游戏部分,一旦第一个子网被阻塞,Telegram 就将其服务器切换到备用IP地址。

克里姆林宫穷追不舍,截至4月19日中午它已经禁止了总共 1800 万个IP地址(相比之下,在过去几年中,这个数字为 38,000 个)。以至于 Gmail 和其他 Google 服务对许多俄罗斯人而言都无法使用,因为当局关闭了他们认为可被用于规避禁令的所有主要网络。

克里姆林宫强硬派一直不遗余力地促使建造一个中国那样的 GFW。独立观察员 Konstantin Gaaze 对媒体说,中国模式是正在被俄罗斯当局纳入考虑的三种模式之一。

相比下,当年中国封锁 telegram 时没有引起猫鼠游戏的斗争。

2015 年 7 月,Telegram 遭遇了大规模 DDoS 攻击,峰值攻击流量高达 200Gbps。公司CEO Pavel Durov 一开始推测可能是竞争对手 LINE 所为,两家公司之间存在版权方面的争议。但他很快就表示也不确定了。

Durov 说,唯一能确定的是,“亚洲有个大人物很不高兴”,他们此前从未见过如此大规模的 DDoS 攻击。Techcrunch 认为,有很多因素将攻击源指向中国

中国官媒《人民日报》在2015年7月11日发表的文章中公开抨击和抹黑当时被逮捕的多名维权律师,文章中提到律师和访民使用的通信工具是微信、QQ 群和 Telegram,其中 Telegram 被多次突出和强调,称“‘电报’主要用于组织串联,里面的言论基本都是攻击党和政府的……人们在里面策划、组织各种声援活动,可以设定时间删除图片和文字……

Telegram 包含了信息自毁功能、支持端对端加密,很难被监听。当时 Telegram 的网站也已经遭到了中国的封锁。Durov 说,“我不认为 Telegram 在中国已被彻底屏蔽,但来自中国的流量确实在下降。如果中国完全屏蔽了 Telegram,现阶段我们不会与他们的政府玩猫鼠游戏,让他们屏蔽好了。”

“价值观”

根据中国异议的经验,只有被 GFW 封锁的应用才是安全和“干净”的。因为如果一个应用能顺利在中国市场占据一席之地,其势必会妥协于中国当局的审查要求,而那些妥协细节往往不会被公开。尤其是加密应用,其进入中国的交换条件势必会包括密钥或者后门。

就如 Facebook 致力于创建的“中国版”、Apple 把密钥交给共产党、LinkedIn 变成亲政府水军的操练场……去年 PayPal 也和百度合作了,虽然 PayPal 在美国做过不少不义之举,但此前对中国人来说它还是相对安全的,现在不再是了。

如今这一逻辑在俄罗斯也适用。Telegram 被克里姆林宫封锁是因为它拒绝交出秘钥,这是非常明智的,作为一家被广泛信任的安全通讯产品,它必需维护自己的声誉根基。Telegram 显然比很多美国大型科技公司有骨气多了,那些人为了进入俄罗斯市场不惜以允许克里姆林宫查看源代码为条件。而如此严重的利益交换却直到两个多月前才被调查。

这一层面上看,中国和俄罗斯是一致的,那么基于结果的差异在哪里?除了对大面积的“附带伤害”的愤怒之外,俄罗斯人也没有满足于使用 VPN 绕开封锁的方法,他们要求当局允许安全的通讯应用在不损伤其安全性的前提下继续方便使用,而不是中国社会追求的“退一步海阔天空”。

首先必需重申本网的一贯立场:不论是否封锁,VPN/Tor 这些隐私保护技术都是必要的,就像你出门要穿衣服一样,不仅要穿,而且不能穿开裆裤,也就是说要尽可能地保护隐私安全,反追踪、反审查,这是原则性问题。

但这并不意味着你应该妥协于当局的封锁,“嗨,我一直挂着 VPN 呢,随便你怎么封”。封锁、审查就是侵犯人权的,由此引发的维权需求理论上很容易将人们引向街头。

“忍耐力”

事实显示,中国人的“忍耐力”的确远高于俄罗斯,虽然很多俄罗斯观察家曾经多次批评俄罗斯社会错过了对普京政权的抗议机会。

这次俄罗斯人上街了,一万两千人在莫斯科街头抗议当局封锁 telegram,其中年轻人是主力。著名反对派领导人 Alexei Navalny 也参加了,并且以他的影响力在 Twitter 上动员更多人加入反抗。

该消息以多种语言在社交媒体上传播,iyouport 做了翻译,但他们的中文版在 GFW 内的推送几乎无人响应。编辑 Sidman 说他们推送了上百个群组,大约覆盖面在数万人左右,但没有收到任何回应(除了一位老朋友的点赞)。当时中国人在欢庆五一节小长假。

与此同时,一位中国编辑私下找到 Sidman,拿着一张莫斯科抗议现场的照片,很兴奋的说“你是否知道这件事?”Sidman 表示:“你应该把它(这张照片)发出来,公开发布”,但对方拒绝了。恐怕是为难于审查。

这大概是最有趣的部分。

在中国,曾经很多观察人士信奉关于社会压力(情绪积累)达到某个阈值便可触发反抗行动的设想,这一预测在理论上是说得通的,相关“积累”也从未断档,但实际状况显示,其效果正在走向预期的反方向:增强了大众的忍耐力、段子手的幽默感,以及为各种媒体自媒体提供了选题,此外没了。如今连幽默感都快没了。

iyouport 曾在 2015 年发表过一篇关于雾霾的分析,事实显示,PM2.5 的压力对所谓的“阈值”并没有起到什么作用,那么“阈值”究竟在哪儿呢?

换句话说,中国人能忍到什么地步?

“Pavel Durov 是俄罗斯人”

有朋友给出了这个理由。意思是,作为异议的 Pavel Durov 对俄罗斯采取的封锁会比其他任何国家都更为敏感。

不否认存在这一关系。上月底,Pavel Durov 呼吁支持者从自家窗户往外飞纸飞机,以反对俄罗斯禁止加密通讯。全国的用户纷纷响应了这一呼吁,纸飞机行动“支持互联网自由”。

Durov 于2014年离开俄罗斯,并成为克里姆林宫关于互联网自由政策的著名批评者,他在互联网上呼吁支持者挖掘 “关于禁止 telegram 的原因、计划和方法的一切内部信息”。

对比 2015 年遭遇大规模 DDoS 攻击时的态度,并没有追查或者发动用户抗议,显然 Durov 无法做到这点,在原籍国动员反抗是社会运动问题,在其他国家动员会触及国际关系问题,虽然互联网无国界、隐私保护需求对所有人来说都应该是一样的。

但反过来看,中国人真的需要一个外国人/外国企业来动员吗?或者说,与 Durov 身份近似的华裔异议流亡人士遍布全球,为什么依旧如那位欧洲朋友所说 “在国际上很难听到中国人的声音”?

以上都是自我反思,最后有必要提及一个基础设施级的问题。

“北方叙事”

“北方叙事”是对一个近十几年来一直流行的概念的委婉说法,即“数字殖民主义 digital colonialism”(也叫做 electronic colonialism 前后两个链接指向更多诠释)。委婉也意味着取其一部分含义,基于本文的主题,而不是全部含义。

数字殖民主义的完整含义是,全球北方国家对南方国家通过互联网实施的经济、文化和社会等方面的日益增加的霸权。这有很多原因 - 与经济、文化和社会以及互联网的技术架构均有关。

互联网主要是一个以英语为基础的媒介,大部分应用程序和服务都以与世界大多数人口不相称的语言提供。统计数据表明,互联网上大约 60% 的网页内容都是英文的,而全球只有大约 10-15% 的人口会说英语。这就剥夺了全球大量人口的接触,并加剧了数字鸿沟。

“数字殖民主义”的反对者认为,目前世界上估计有超过 6000 种语言,但其中大部分可能会随着英语接管全球媒体和内容而消失。

伊朗的抗议者在 Twitter 使用英语传播资讯、俄罗斯的抗议者也是,包括中国在内的很多国家在互联网上的官方宣传都使用英语。与此同时,技术和在线经济领域建立的商业模式大多来自北方国家,就如你所知道的 Google、Facebook、Twitter 等监视资本主义巨头,对基本人权和数据的攫取主义(extractivism)式的侵蚀。现在,中国的互联网公司也拼命想从中分一杯羹。

互联网上的内容往往被这些来自北方的庞大过滤器所筛选,最终互联网人所能看到的内容基本符合“北方叙事”的需求。仅举一例,2016年的飓风,互联网上最频繁出现的消息基本都显示为飓风对纽约的影响,与此同时海地、牙买加和古巴同样的境遇却很少有资讯。

相关案例基本铺天盖地。搜索算法直接影响用户访问信息的方式这是一种无形的审查制度,以符合北方国家的叙事偏好的过滤,并且与那些被标明目的的审查相比(比如“六骑士”),它更不容易被发觉。俄罗斯作为欧美长期而著名的敌人,其被关心程度自然要高于中国和其他国家,就如,只有当特朗普宣称关税计划时,你才有机会看到互联网上对“China”的刷屏;伊朗封锁 telegram 几乎和俄罗斯前后脚,但显然相关报道远没有俄罗斯更高。

北京大学的性侵事件是搭接在 #metoo 热门标签下才进入英文媒体关注视野的。

这里面还有一个“新闻倦怠”问题。也就是说,如果伊朗封锁 telegram 出现在 2006 年,也就是美国和伊朗关系由于伊朗核问题而处于焦点的时期,互联网对伊朗的关注会明显高于其他国家。再比如,Wikileaks 在 2010 年连续曝光了两个系列的重量级文件,阿富汗日志和伊拉克日志,而媒体们对后者的关心程度远远没有前者更高。两份文件本身的重要程度是一样的、并且都与美国有关。但由于当时阿富汗战争正在进行中,而伊拉克战争“已过时”,于是阿富汗更具吸引力,也就是能让读者体验到刷屏的感受……

俄罗斯对 telegram 的封锁恰逢民主党酝酿起诉、俄罗斯前间谍在英国被毒杀事件余音尚存,于是俄罗斯成为刷屏关键字而不是其他国家,也就不难理解了。

本文不讨论如何抵制“数字殖民主义”,因为那将是个颇大的篇幅,而且近十年来相关论述几乎铺天盖地,这里仅希望思考为什么中国思想和行动没能走出去?

除了本网曾经分析过的社会自闭问题、中国政府的战略性封闭问题,还有行动能力问题。就算没有打破北方国家主导互联网内容的整体生态,中国政府在欧美持续的所谓影响力发挥正逐渐进入北方国家的关切重点、特朗普政府对中国的立场正引起大多数互联网主流媒体的兴趣,在这一形式下如果中国社会能有明显的行动,就如莫斯科正在发生的显著的抗议活动,进入互联网热点的可能性将会很高。

***********

在危地马拉,许多人至今都没有其他方式获取到他们所居住的村庄之外的信息 - 甚至连电力等基本公用事业都缺乏。但如果你有机会使用互联网,却只访问一些固定的网站、只与一些固定的人交流,你就和危地马拉的村里人没什么区别,你完全没能享受到互联网真正的价值。

如果你不能在最大程度上创造、创新或推动,互联网对你来说并没有什么用。互联网的小圈子只是低热量的信息饮食,仅仅是一种维生,而不是发展和增长。

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